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Saturday, September 27, 2008

The $700 Billion Bailout

So let's say that they strike a deal and the government buys up all that bad paper. Then what? People still can't make the mortgage payments and the defaults continue? I don't understand why the lenders don't just renegotiate or freeze the interest rates to keep people from defaulting on their mortgages. Propagate the lower earnings from those mortgages up the food chain into the ABCP. Everybody ends up getting less, except the little guy ie. the homeowner gets to continue living in their home and make payments towards eventually owning it. Have the government issue coupons attached to the mortgages, the value of such coupons dropping each year. This allows both the homeowner and lending institution to be weaned out of the situation slowly. This also avoids needing to have all the $700 billion up front, apart from having to buy up enough of the currently worthless paper to keep the system afloat right now

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Scary Financial Times

With the collapse of so many financial institutions looming in the US, and the Fed stepping in with $100 billion+ dollars of prop-up funding, one has to be very worried. The US is already running yearly deficits close to $500 billion, so this extra prop-up cash has to be coming from the printing presses (ie. from out of thin air) and/or via loans from other countries such as China. The Fed did not cut interest rates this week, so that tells me that they're likely worried about the printing presses fueling inflation.

Some people may see these times as a great buying opportunity, but I don't recommend trying to catch a falling knife. Wait until things settle out, and cross your fingers that they do. If you're looking for a decent GIC rate, ING Direct just came out with a 1.5 year GIC at 4%. I think it's a time limited promotional rate since it beats the rates on all their other GICs except for the 5 year which also has the same 4% rate.